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JOURNEY · DETAIL
Milei: From TV Celebrity Economist to Argentina's Chainsaw Austerity Experiment
Founded: Javier Milei · Government of the Argentine Republic
JOURNEY
Key Fields
FIELD STAMPSIndustryOther
RegionMulti-region
ScaleGiant
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Origin
Milei came from a humble background, once served as a football goalkeeper, and later turned to economics. He spent years on TV talk shows attacking the Argentine central bank and Peronism, building public recognition through his 'chainsaw' gesture and extreme rhetoric. In the 2010s, Argentina faced runaway inflation, depleted foreign exchange reserves, and multiple debt defaults. Both Kirchnerism and the Macri administration's interventionist policies failed, and Milei blamed this on the rent-seeking political class and excessive money printing. In 2021, he was elected to Congress under the banner of 'war on the political class.' In the 2023 general election, he defeated ruling party candidate Massa with a radical platform of 'full dollarization, abolishing the central bank, and cutting public spending,' taking office as President on December 10, 2023.
Milestones
2010
Public Opinion Accumulation Turning Point
In 2010, Milei served as an economic commentator on major Argentine TV stations, creating buzz with his exaggerated 'chainsaw' gestures and slogans like 'abolish the central bank, dollarize.' His 2018 book 'The Economics of the Poor' became a bestseller. He accurately predicted the failure of the Macri administration's capital controls and accumulated millions of followers on social media, laying the foundation for his subsequent political career.
2021
Entering Congress Inflection Point
Milei founded La Libertad Avanza and was elected as a city councilor in Buenos Aires at age 37. On his first day, he announced he would give up his salary, publicly promising to take only 80% of it to shape an 'anti-establishment' image. His congressional speeches frequently used a chainsaw prop to cut plastic models representing public spending, drawing national media attention.
2023
Elected President PMF
Milei defeated ruling party candidate and Economy Minister Massa in the second round of the presidential election with a landslide 55.7% to 44.3% victory, becoming the first economist president in Argentine history without a traditional party background. He promised 'no room for gradualism,' vowing to use the 'chainsaw' to cut the political privileged class that accounted for 40% of public spending, and pushed for full dollarization. He ultimately secured 56% of the vote, the highest record since Argentina's democratization.
2024
Shock Therapy Launch Failure
On his first day in office, Milei signed Emergency Decree No. 70, cutting government departments from 18 to 9, firing over 35,000 civil servants, suspending all public works tenders, and devaluing the official exchange rate from 366 pesos to 800 pesos per USD in one go. Inflation soared to a peak of 20.6% in January 2024, and the national poverty rate hit 57.4% in the first quarter of 2024. Social protests and union strikes were frequent, marking an extreme fiscal austerity experiment at the cost of social pain.
2025
Fiscal Surplus and Early Debt Repayment Turning Point
Argentina announced a fiscal surplus of 1.8% of GDP for the full year 2024, the first annual surplus since 2010. In April 2025, it repaid $1 billion in maturing debt to the IMF ahead of schedule and announced the lifting of foreign exchange controls in June 2025. Monthly inflation dropped from 25.5% in December 2023 to an average of less than 2% by May 2025, though the annual inflation rate remained at 117.8%, and the purchasing power of peso-denominated wages had depreciated by nearly one-third compared to 2023.
2026
Central Bank Reform Legislation Inflection Point
Milei submitted a central bank reform bill to Congress, with the core provision being a total ban on the central bank directly financing the Treasury, attempting to cut off the mechanism of periodic money printing in Argentina's history. The bill is seen as an alternative to Milei's 'dollarization' path. If passed, it would make the central bank an inflation-targeting institution independent of the executive branch. As of July 2026, the bill is still under review in Congress, with the opposition accusing him of handing monetary policy entirely over to external credit rating agencies.
Turning Points
- The 2018 publication of 'The Economics of the Poor' and the continuous reinforcement of the chainsaw-wielding image on TV propelled him from an economics professor to a national opinion leader.
- After being elected to Congress in 2021, he voluntarily gave up 80% of his salary, successfully crafting an 'anti-establishment' label that attracted many low-to-middle-income voters disappointed with traditional parties.
- Defeating Massa in the November 2023 election forced opponents who originally advocated for gradualism to publicly admit that 'a shock therapy is needed,' marking the resurgence of neoliberal discourse in Argentina.
- Despite the poverty rate soaring to 57.4% in Q1 2024, he refused to cut spending, holding the line on fiscal surplus under social pressure, which created the conditions for early debt repayment in 2025.
- After announcing the lifting of foreign exchange controls in June 2025, actual inflation fell more than expected, and international credit rating agencies upgraded Argentina's outlook to 'stable'.
Failures & Pitfalls
- After the peso devalued by over 200% in January 2024, the February CPI remained as high as 20.6% month-on-month, far exceeding the government's expected 15%, forcing the central bank to use $3 billion in foreign reserves to intervene.
- The promise of full dollarization was completely shelved. In May 2024, Milei publicly admitted that 'dollarization is a distant end goal,' turning instead to the IMF to extend loan programs, leaving his core campaign platform effectively dead.
- In March 2025, the congressional review of the bill to abolish rent controls suffered a setback as radical lawmakers boycotted it, marking the first time Milei's 'deregulation' list was thwarted in the legislature.
- The 'Labor Reform Law' pushed in December 2024 was forced through by presidential decree after failing to pass in parliament, but the Constitutional Court ruled some clauses unconstitutional, exposing the conflict between centralized executive power and judicial checks and balances.
关键成功要素
- Using TV talk shows as a base, employing 'chainsaw' visual symbols and extremist language to create continuous media topics, and converting economic knowledge into a tool for mass political mobilization.
- A narrative framework that precisely separates the 'political class' from the 'people,' attributing all economic pain to political interest groups, allowing austerity policies to gain authorization from grassroots voters as if they were 'facing a national crisis together.'
- Massive layoffs of ministries and civil servants on the first day in office, promoting fiscal surplus on the principle that 'stopping the bleeding takes priority over pain relief,' and treating short-term pain as a necessary cost for long-term confidence.
- Flexibly pivoting to IMF cooperation rather than stubbornly pursuing dollarization, prioritizing the maintenance of foreign exchange reserves and market stability under realistic constraints to avoid a systemic collapse of the monetary system.
Lessons
- The political life of economic reform depends on narrative consistency: Milei consistently described 'cutting the state apparatus' as a 'punishment for the privileged class' rather than a deprivation of public welfare, which allowed the lower classes to tolerate the soaring poverty rate.
- Aristotelian rhetorical strategy—appealing to anger is more effective at driving elections than appealing to a vision, but after taking office, one must replace the ideal end goal (dollarization) with transitional policies to survive.
- The sequence of monetary and fiscal reform is more important than the intensity: Milei devalued first and tightened later, causing short-term inflation shocks far exceeding expectations. The lesson is that stabilizing exchange rate expectations before cutting spending might be smoother.
- Institutional achievements (fiscal surplus, central bank independence bill) are more capable of extending reform legacies than individual heroism. The 2026 central bank reform bill is a firewall set up specifically to prevent 'policy reversal after the person leaves'.
Core Data
- Government ministries in the first year：Reduced from 18 to 9, a 50% cut (based on public data, independent verification not performed)
- Number of civil servants laid off：Over 35,000 (based on public data, independent verification not performed)
- 2024 GDP growth rate：-3.2% (INDEC) (based on public data, independent verification not performed)
- 2024 annual inflation rate：117.8% (based on public data, independent verification not performed)
- May 2025 monthly inflation rate：1.2% (month-on-month) (based on public data, independent verification not performed)
- 2024 fiscal surplus as a percentage of GDP：1.8% (based on public data, independent verification not performed)
- Early repayment of IMF debt due in 2025：$1 billion (based on public data, independent verification not performed)
- Q1 2024 national poverty rate：57.4% (INDEC) (based on public data, independent verification not performed)
- Official exchange rate devaluation：Devalued from 366 pesos to 1 USD to 800 pesos, then gradually recovered to approximately 500 pesos (June 2025) (official data)
- Congressional seat share：La Libertad Avanza holds only 40 seats in the 257-seat Chamber of Deputies and 7 seats in the 72-seat Senate (based on public data, independent verification not performed)
Competitors / Peers
Milei's economic intervention lies between the Chicago Boys' reforms during the Pinochet era in Chile and traditional IMF shock therapy. The Peronist camp led by Massa still controlled the Senate in the 2025 midterm elections, and their advocacy for a gradual return to a welfare state remains Milei's primary political opposition. The Lula government in Brazil has adopted a big-government stimulus route, forming a regional contrast with Milei, and evaluations of Argentina's fiscal austerity within Mercosur are polarized. The IMF still retains doubts about the long-term sustainability of Argentina's debt, especially given that foreign exchange reserves cover less than three months of imports.
Sources
- https://www.huxiu.com/article/4828731.html
- https://www.163.com/dy/article/L435GU7O05198ETO.html
- https://news.hexun.com/2023-11-25/211262490.html
- https://finsages.org/2025/10/21/%e7%94%b5%e9%94%af%e7%8b%82%e4%ba%baor%e6%95%91%e5%9b%bd%e5%85%88%e7%9f%a5%ef%bc%9f%e9%98%bf%e6%a0%b9%e5%bb%b7%e4%bc%91%e5%85%8b%e7%96%97%e6%b3%95%e5%85%a8%e8%ae%b0%e5%bd%95/
- https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/26/7/31/n14820952.htm