A long-form piece distilled from a 10,000-character deep edit and 18 independent business-perspective deductions — the platform's essence, the buyer profile, product-selection logic, costs and the compounding account, compliance red lines, the T-60-day operating rhythm, the page and the launch, liquidation and retreat, and the consensus and disagreements among 18 voices
The first installment in this site's "Deep Dives" series. It is the public, de-sensitized edition of one complete round of research into the Makuake platform: multiple rounds of evidence-gathering from public sources plus 18 independent business-perspective deductions, merged into an operating handbook, then edited once more for public release. It is aimed at practitioners asking "should I get on, and how?"
The full text runs about 10,000 characters and takes about 12 minutes to read through. You can start with Chapter 1 to judge "whether it suits you," then drill into the relevant subsection via the table of contents.
Answers four of the most basic questions: what kind of company Makuake is and who keeps it alive; what kind of people put down the money; how players of roughly your size actually fare; and the one thing all eighteen advisors agree on — what it really is, to you.
Makuake (マクアケ) is written in Japanese as「幕開け」, meaning "the curtain rises" — the name spoils its positioning: a place that stages a premiere for new things, not ordinary e-commerce, and not charity fundraising.
An easily overlooked but friendly fact: this company itself lost money for a long time (in FY2022 it sold ¥4.268 billion and still lost ¥1.347 billion), which shows that the 20% fee simply cannot cover its costs of buying traffic, running reviews, and assigning a curator (キュレーター) to every project — you, as the project side, are riding on that subsidy. 【Buffett】: a low-risk structure — "you lose at most your sunk cost, while the platform underwrites the traffic and trust for you."
Where does it rank in the pond? (January–May 2026, craco survey)
| Metric | Makuake | The market as a whole |
|---|---|---|
| Share of amount | 44.2% (¥7.87 billion) | ¥17.82 billion |
| Share of number of backers | 47.8% (463,000 people) | — |
| Number of projects | No. 2 | 9,748 (CAMPFIRE is No. 1 by count but mostly small projects) |
In one sentence: when it comes to "selling new products, selling high-priced new products," Makuake is Japan's biggest pond; when it comes to sheer project count, CAMPFIRE takes first place on the back of a huge volume of small projects. If you make physical goods and want an average order value of ten thousand yen or more, there is no second choice.
That said, the platform is pushing itself toward "super-large projects": in 2026 the average per-project value was ¥1.88 million (+22.2%), the number of projects over ¥100 million doubled year-on-year, and the repeat-investment rate among operators was 60.9%. The company itself admits in its financial-report risk section that "high dependence on super-large projects" is a business risk — read it backwards: the platform favors leaders like Rokid and XGIMI more, and it is a trend that small players' organic traffic gets squeezed by the leaders.
But hold on to one fact: these people are not "your customers" — they are the platform's members. Once the project ends and shipping is done, you have not obtained their email addresses as a private asset — the right to use the list and the channel for re-marketing both sit with the platform. 【Yanai】: "Customers don't come to donate; they spend ¥10,000–20,000 to buy the sense of superiority of 'getting to use a good thing half a year earlier than others.' Your page must answer 'why now' and 'why you.'"
| Tier | Sense of scale | Typical examples |
|---|---|---|
| Top-tier myth | ¥500M–930M per project | Rokid smart glasses ¥637M (later surpassed by XGIMI Elfin Flip at ¥930M); big-company product premieres |
| Mid-tier million-yen | ¥1–3M per project, average ¥1.88M | Overseas niche brands' Japan premieres, regional quality goods, design sundries |
| Startup small | ¥300K–1M per project, ¥500K target has the highest success rate | A single-SKU new brand's first release, small AoN tests |
Don't be fooled by the official success rate: the platform discloses "86.2% success rate after fundraising begins," but it only counts projects that already passed pre-screening and were successfully published — the pre-publication screening has already filtered a batch out. For first-timers, a more useful benchmark (6,080 projects, 2021 data): a target of ≤¥1M + 30 backers in the initial push are the two notable success-rate forks.
Makuake is not a marketplace where you "put goods up to see if anyone buys," but your new-product launch event + market test room + trust-endorsement machine.
Hard corollary: Makuake is only the launch event. Once launched, where do you sell your thing? The platform is the left pan of the scale, and you must have the relay channels ready on the right pan yourself — Amazon JP, Rakuten, your own site, or Makuake STORE. People with no right pan should not get on.
Rule one: AoN (All or Nothing) and All-in, two modes. AoN means "funds are released only if the target is met"; if not met, everything is refunded to backers and the platform charges nothing — but your filming costs / PR costs / sample costs are all lost. All-in means "regardless of whether the target is met, you are charged on the actual amount." AoN caps at 89 days, All-in caps at 150 days, and payment is made as a lump sum on the 25th of the month following the end of the campaign. Cash-flow threshold: from project start to money in hand is at minimum 3.5–4 months, and at most about 6 months.
Rule two: the platform cares about the "first 3 days" to a pathological degree. Algorithmic recommendation ranking weighs the acceleration of support within 72 hours of the public launch date, and "for most projects, 80% of the final result is decided in the first 3 days." The derived iron law: before going public you must have your own SNS warm-up and メルマガ (email newsletter) list — "we'll figure it out once we're on the platform" = suicide.
Rule three: backers pay an "安心システム利用料 [Peace-of-Mind System Usage Fee] of 2.2%," borne by the buyer (from August 1, 2024). This has nothing to do with your costs, but it affects pricing psychology: what backers see is "product price + 2.2%," and your price tiers must count this 2.2% into the "psychological total price."
Makuake is a listed company with a market cap of about ¥11 billion, living off a 20% fee, whose money is not enough to cover the subsidized traffic and curator team, so it is naturally friendly to project operators; its buyers are about 3.54 million members, averaging ¥17,478 per transaction, favoring ¥5,000–30,000 goods of the "Japan-first" type; its 2026 monitoring indicators are a 44.2% share of amount, 3.5× growth in AI-related goods, and a ¥930M ceiling for super-large projects; but what truly matters is: it is a launch event doubling as a test market, not a selling floor.
The mistake beginners make most easily is copying the hot categories at the front of the rankings. This road is certain death: checking 29 categories that have proven hot overseas against Makuake's entire database, the result was that 21 had already become red oceans, 6 were in a gap, and 2 were pure blue oceans — the direction you see by following the rankings has long since been occupied by others.
Don't ask "what sells well on Makuake"; ask "what demand has been proven, but no one on Makuake has supplied yet."
This is the "cross-border set-difference" method: treat what sells well on Makuake as the exclusion set, go to the bestseller lists of China / Korea / the US to find things, then subtract. The results fall into three tiers:
【Thiel】: "Don't do 1→n hauling." 【Godin】: "If your product disappeared tomorrow, would anyone miss it?" — if no one would miss it tomorrow, you shouldn't be on this shelf.
Gate 1 · Demand comes first (not Makuake first): demand evidence must come from outside Makuake. 【Buffett】's test: "Search the candidate category once each on Yahoo! Chiebukuro, X trends, and Instagram Japan hashtags; if within a month there are 50+ posts in the tone of 'I use it myself, recommending it to friends,' then talk further."
Gate 2 · Set-difference positioning: find out which tier the candidate occupies in Makuake's entire database. Many on sale = exclude. Zero cost, clear this first.
Gate 3 · Compliance screening (the lighter lesson): a certain lighter category topped the charts in Korea and had 0 hits across Makuake's entire database — seemingly a perfect pure blue ocean, but it was an oil-based lighter, hitting the triple barrier of the PSC safety law + JIS S 4801 testing + Japan Post's ban on dangerous goods, and the whole case was blocked. Of the "blue oceans" the set-difference filter turns up, half are not "no one is doing it" but "it can't be done." A "blue ocean" that fails the compliance screen should be crossed out immediately.
Gate 4 · The Japan-side narrative holds: 【Suzuki】"客は値段の高い安いを見てない。値段の向こう側を見てる。" 【Godin】's purple-cow standard: the difference must be big enough that "even your neighbor will actively ask what it is." At the level of "a lighter power bank" or "a more water-saving showerhead," "in Japan's 2026 sea, no one will even see you."
Gate 5 · Gross margin can bear the cut: Makuake's all-in rate is about 22% (tax and settlement fees included). Work backwards: the average order value must reach a band that can bear the cut — only ¥10,000 or more can bear 22%.
Gate 6 · Chinese supply chain genuinely obtainable: the price gap is a real advantage (Chinese wholesale prices are generally 1/10–1/20 of Japanese retail). But deduct two accounts: ① from 2026 Japan abolishes the consumption-tax exemption for low-value imports, with a uniform 10% consumption tax on cross-border goods; ② hidden MOQ — 1688 data shows 78% of suppliers set a hidden MOQ for first-time first-order customers higher than the stated one on the page. "Wholesale price at 1/10" does not mean you can get your first order at that price.
Funnel shape: Gates 1–2 are so you don't follow the herd, Gate 3 is so you don't court death, Gates 4–5 are so you don't waste effort, Gate 6 is so you don't miscalculate.
| Dimension | A. Extreme tech | B. Proven-hit-from-elsewhere | C. Gap-band | D. Emotional gray-band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| In one sentence | Original tech / new species | Hot-selling abroad, brought to Japan for a premiere | A gap where there was a hit historically but no one is interested now | Not tech but narrative; catches the psychology of "want good stuff but don't want to spend" |
| Demand evidence | Almost none | Hardest: sales on other countries' platforms | Hard: historical fundraising data is checkable | Soft: relies on community tone and resonance |
| Competitive situation | Exclusive if it holds; most likely it doesn't | Races fast, short window | No one right now, but think through "why did the last wave retreat" | No visible rival, but everyone is grabbing attention |
| Compliance / capital barrier | High (often involves electrical certification, on the order of ¥1M per item) | Medium (mostly public molds, ramps fast) | Medium (mostly unregulated sundries, light home goods) | Low–medium (sundries, design goods, experience type) |
| Fit for "Chinese in Japan + Chinese sourcing" | Weak | Strong: price gap and sourcing speed are the advantage | Strong: gap products are mostly in the sundries band, direct to 1688 | Medium: narrative power is the advantage, the goods themselves have a low barrier |
| Biggest way to die | Self-indulgence: believing a good tech should be recognized by the market | Following a step late and becoming a pacer; compliance not screened clean | Misjudgment: a gap isn't "no one found it," it's "it doesn't make money" | The story is told beautifully, but no one actually pays |
The four paths are not mutually exclusive, but the first release takes only one — try to touch two paths at once and the result is that you fail the barriers of all four.
First, the on-paper advantage of identity: among Makuake's historical top 30 by amount, projects explicitly marked as Chinese-brand / Chinese-background number 15, raising ¥5.71 billion in total, which is 59.4% of the top-30 total of ¥9.61 billion. There are also four exclusive advantages: native Chinese direct connection to 1688 and industrial belts; a Japanese legal entity can use formal import channels; understanding of domestic narratives transfers over; and a trip home can double as a factory inspection.
Using "first-release budget kept under ¥1M" as the reference:
With this budget and identity, the "compliance-heavy" half of path B is locked shut to you; the remaining B (proven products from elsewhere in unregulated sundries) + C (sundries gap band) + D (emotional gray band) are your actual runway; A (extreme tech) is not considered this round unless the budget doubles.
【Buffett】's sequencing argument goes with it: "First validate on Amazon Japan for 90 days, then go on Makuake to add leverage" — the tighter the budget, the more this order must not be reversed.
The platform doesn't make money on your listing; it makes money on your success. Listing, consultation, and initial fees are all ¥0; the cut begins the moment a sale happens.
| Item | Amount | Who pays |
|---|---|---|
| Platform fee (incl. settlement fee) | 20% of the total 応援購入 amount (excl. tax, already incl. 決済手数料), effective tax-inclusive burden about 22% | The 実行者 [operator] (you) |
| 安心システム利用料 | 2.2% (excl. tax) × 応援購入 amount | Paid by the backer, affects the buyer's psychological price |
| Ad agency (optional) | From 10% of the target amount (minimum ¥300K for 2 weeks) | You |
| Page-production agency (optional) | From ¥300K (¥0 if you do it yourself) | You |
| Not reached (AoN type) | ¥0 | — |
【Dalio】: "Real net take-home is about 75–76%." Mental math to memorize: raise ¥1M, take home about ¥750K–780K; pricing by a 0.78 factor is the most stable.
Pitfall warning: the circulating "effective 25%" mixes up the basis — the official 20% excl. tax already includes the 決済手数料, so don't add another 5%.
Costs you must front yourself (A-tier measured range, 2026 prices, using new-product sundries / accessories / lifestyle small items as the example):
| Item | Amount (¥10K) |
|---|---|
| Certification | 0–2 |
| Samples / prototyping | 5–20 |
| First batch of goods (100–200 units) | 20–50 |
| Shooting / video | 8–30 |
| Page | 0–30 |
| Ads | 10–30 |
| 3PL warehousing and shipping | 5–15 |
| Misc. | 5 |
| Total | About ¥500K–1.15M, midpoint ¥750K |
For electrical goods (PSE certification + mold-making), you jump straight to B tier: total about ¥1.9M–5.6M. This is why this book recommends the "uncertified new product" route for a first release.
【Taleb】's "water-out table": for every ¥1M raised, the platform takes 20–25%, payment misc. 3–5%, FX buffer 5–10%, marketing/shooting/PR 10–15%, so less than 55% is actually usable for procurement and fulfillment. Corollary: "A product with under 50% gross margin should not be listed — not 'can it reach the target,' but 'after it does, will you die.'"
Core formula: net receipts = amount raised S × 0.8, so the break-even point is:
Target amount S* = total cost × 1.25
A-tier example: total cost about ¥1.15M, so S* ≈ ¥1.44M, set the target at ¥1.5M. Against reality: in 2025 Makuake's average per project was about ¥3.01M — a ¥1.5M target is below the platform average, so the probability of reaching it is on the high side.
【Dalio】's revised version: the formula omits the company operating costs during the vacuum period (rent, wages, visa pension).
Target amount = (first-batch production sunk cost + 90-day operating-vacuum cost) ÷ 0.75
Sunk cost and company operating costs must be listed on two separate lines: the former "goes to zero if the project fails," the latter "must be paid whether it succeeds or not."
Success-rate cliff: target ≤ ¥1M and 30 backers in the initial push are the viability fork; projects with over ¥788,800 and fewer than 14.5 backers have a success rate of only 5.8%. 【Dalio】's AoN/All-in selection rule: target ≤ ¥1M uses AoN (success rate about 45%); > ¥3M uses All-in to protect production; the middle zone is split into 2–3 sub-projects run in rolling fashion. Note: the official "86.2% success rate after publication" includes pre-screening bias, and a first challenger failing more than 70% of the time is the empirical value.
Makuake settlement rule: closing at the end of the month the campaign ends → a single lump-sum payment on the 25th of the following month.
T-2~T-1 month Prep period: review/page/shooting/prototyping — all fronted by you (¥100K–400K out)
T0 Public launch day
T0~T+60 days Fundraising period: ads keep burning money, no income in hand
T+end of month The moment the campaign ends: the money is only a "number on the platform"
T+25th of next month Payment day: S × 0.8 arrives in one lump — this is the first real money
T+25 days~T+half year Production + shipping (must be fully shipped within 6 months of the end): the big spending comes after the payment arrives
Three time-lag facts:
【Buffett】: the 22% commission buys only pre-order slips and a launch event, and the backer list belongs to the platform — after the project ends there is no "repeat-purchase tap water."
The AoN mechanism naturally carries a layer of insurance: not reached = no payment = 0 fee. But that is not a full waiver — the part you fronted yourself you bear alone:
| Tier | Worst-case loss | Contents |
|---|---|---|
| A tier | About ¥300K–700K | Shooting, page, ad fees, prototyping samples |
| B tier | About ¥1M–3M | Plus certification, molds, factory deposits |
Key hedge: make the factory contract a conditional-payment clause of "place the order only after the project succeeds," removing the biggest inventory / deposit risk from the failure bag.
【Buffett】's four-question self-check — ① if only 30% is reached, can you launch a second time after the sunk person-days? ② can the photos, copy, video, and samples be seamlessly moved to Amazon JP / Rakuten / your own EC site for a second monetization? ③ can the first batch of real Japanese user feedback make the next-generation product more valuable? ④ can the supply chain turn without Makuake? If two of the four answers are "no," don't get on yet — go test-sell on Amazon for 90 days first.
【Taleb】's barbell is position discipline: only allowed to do it if the entire full-cycle budget of a single project going to zero wouldn't hurt you — it should be at the 10% tier of company funds, with 90% left for daily cash flow; keep a refund reserve of 15% in the company account.
Under the seven requirements of the 2025/10 new rules for the Business Management Visa (capital of ¥30M, one full-time employee, N2/BJT400, either a degree or 3 years of work experience, a business plan needing external-expert confirmation, no home-office combination in principle, and full submission of public dues) — a properly kept Makuake account is precisely the core evidence for renewal:
【Dalio】: "Before signing, list the operating costs of the 90-day vacuum period on the sunk-cost line of the target amount. The key constraint of this machine is not product strength, but the bank balance on the 25th."
| Category | Governing law | Certification difficulty | Lead time / cost order | Playable? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electrical products (electric heating / motorized / rechargeable) | Electrical Appliance and Material Safety Act PSE | Diamond (self-declaration not allowed), needs third-party certification | ¥200K–500K, 1–3 months | ⚠ Doable but eats budget |
| Devices with built-in lithium batteries | PSE diamond special case | Separate project | ¥300K–500K, about 3 months | ⚠ High-cost zone |
| Consumer daily goods (toys / home / lighters) | Consumer Product Safety Act PSC | Self-declaration + PS mark + domestic administrator | Thousands–tens of thousands of yen + agency fee | ✅ Relatively friendly |
| Cosmetics / health foods | 薬機法 | Nominal-nature certification | 4 months+; unapproved efficacy words = a total ban on writing them | ❌ High risk |
| Food | Food Sanitation Act + imported-food notification | Port quarantine + business license | Weeks–months | ⚠ Medium risk |
| Unpowered mechanical sundries (storage, towels, stationery) | Household Goods Quality Labeling Act | Only label precautions, no certification needed | Zero | ✅ Friendliest |
| Wireless communication (Bluetooth / WiFi) | Radio Act 技適 | Third-party testing certification | ¥300K+, 1–2 months | ⚠ Medium risk |
| Medical-device claims | 薬機法 device class | Certification/approval mandatory | Half a year+, cost in the millions | ❌ Only for the big guys |
Wang Tao: "If the PSE mark isn't printed on the product, a corporate license is just a piece of waste paper" — the compliance BOM is not a check before going live, but a specification that must be frozen in at the design stage.
The "domestic administrator" you must name: an overseas legal entity selling products into Japan must appoint a Japanese domestic "domestic administrator." Operators who already hold a Japanese legal entity naturally satisfy this — the biggest hidden buff of operating with corporate status.
景表法 forbidden zone: 「日本一」「業界最速」「最も」[Japan's No. 1 / fastest in the industry / most] (unless there is third-party measured data); 「治療」「治癒」「療効」[treatment / cure / efficacy] (for non-drug-device products); 「だれでも簡単」「絶対安全」[easy for anyone / absolutely safe]; comparison objects / prices / results must be published with a validity period.
薬機法 forbidden zone: 「減肥」「瘦身」「改善血糖/血圧」「排毒」「抗老/美白」[weight loss / slimming / improving blood sugar or pressure / detox / anti-aging or whitening]; 「改善睡眠」「提升免疫」「解毒」[improve sleep / boost immunity / detoxify]; edge words 「医療級」「医師推薦」[medical-grade / doctor-recommended] are also banned.
Mental shortcut: when writing copy, if even one sentence is uncertain — delete it. Reviewers give a first judgment in an average of 8 business days, and two rejections = the project loses its best slot.
Reviewing parties: Makuake's internal review house + the assigned キュレーター + an external legal advisor.
掲載相談 [listing consultation] (official online form)
→ about 2 business days, initial review → application-result letter
→ on passing, enter project design → assigned キュレーター contacts you (within 3 business days)
→ page shooting and copy production (30+ days)
→ review by the review committee (about 8 business days) — three rounds: legal review + page-content review + hands-on verification
→ public launch (application to launch totals 1.5–2 months)
→ public period 30–60 days → end-of-month closing → payment on the 25th of the next month
→ shipping (can be delayed up to 6–9 months)
After being rejected: resubmit within 1 week (a special rule; overtime equals requeuing); a second rejection ≈ this project direction is sentenced to death, and it's recommended to change the product.
A friend made a butane lighter and wanted to start a smoking-accessory project on Makuake; the platform's review dissuaded him outright. Breakdown: ① oil-based lighters fall under PSC regulation, and delivery requires a PS mark and adaptation to Japanese safety standards; ② unless all 5 exemption conditions are met simultaneously (extremely narrow), certification is required; ③ Makuake's merchant review merely dissuades products lacking a PS mark, and will not fight your appeals for you. Conclusion: being dissuaded is not a misjudgment but a compliance gap — before a single unit had even lit, the hundreds of thousands of yen already invested were down the drain.
Passport: for any candidate involving heating / recharging / any efficacy claim on the human body, first verify the compliance price list per the category map, then enter 掲載相談 [listing consultation].
Complete 4 weeks before launch: ① category fit (which cell it falls into); ② certification file (PSE/PSC/技適/drug approval/food notification — all items + outsourcing / lead time / cost); ③ Japanese domestic administrator; ④ tariff HS classification (tariff rate + 10% consumption tax + RCEP reduction); ⑤ budgeting result (are cost × lead time controllable); ⑥ page-expressiveness recheck (a native speaker reviews the draft 3 times); ⑦ if certification takes over 1.5× as long or costs over 2× as much → change the product or the design first.
Compliance budget (persona consensus): Wang Tao — the ¥150K–500K range, scaling up by category; Dalio — treat compliance as an incompressible investment item, not a "cost" but a "qualification"; Taleb — "compliance risk is a typical asymmetric risk — the certification fee you save is a small number, but what you may pay is the very right of the whole company to survive."
Quick conclusion of this section: the safest opening category = unpowered sundries + non-destructive goods that don't act on the human body; the most dangerous = electrical goods, food, cosmetics, medical-efficacy goods, and the PSC wide gate of lighters; decision formula = "category compliance cost > 30% of available budget" = don't enter (the Wang Tao line).
Makuake is not e-commerce; it is "timed fireworks": a project runs at most 89 days from launch to extinguishment, and whether it can take off is basically decided in the 72 hours on each side of the public launch. Two mechanisms of the official algorithm:
The platform's free traffic is a positive-feedback loop of "the strong get stronger." If you can't surge on day one, the following 80 days are self-indulgence.
【Ortega】: "There is no such thing as 'slowly climbing' on Makuake. Kirin whisky broke ¥100M in 4 minutes — the curves of phenomenal projects all consume the first 50% of the amount in the first 1% of the time."
With "launch day = T0" as the origin. Review period: official application → launch, 1.5–2 months in practice, 2–3 months as the safe practical range — scheduling on a T-60 start and T+90 end is the most stable.
| Point | What you must do |
|---|---|
| T-60 ~ -45 | Submit 掲載相談 → merchant review (about 2 business days) → ヒアリングシート [hearing sheet] → assigned キュレーター contacts you (within 3 business days) |
| T-45 ~ -30 | Page first draft + meeting with キュレーター; start SNS cultivation in parallel (teaser site + warm-up posts) |
| T-30 | Choose the product, validate the "one-sentence hook" — can one sentence excite a stranger? If not, change the product (MrBeast) |
| T-30 ~ -14 | 実現性審査 [feasibility review] (about 3 business days) → content FIX (must be finalized 8 business days before launch); start Meta/IG ads into the LINE list (optimal cycle 3–4 weeks before launch, ad spend ≈ 10% of target amount) |
| T-21 | Shoot the main image + cover 2, make 10 A/B versions, find 50 people for blind testing (MrBeast) |
| T-14 | Record the project-page video: the first 8 seconds must be the hook, no self-introduction |
| T-14 ~ -7 | 表記審査 [labeling review] (about 3 business days); personally ask 30–50 people on the core list, one by one via LINE/phone, to "come support on day one or day two" |
| T-7 | Teaser ads go live; SNS warm-up maxed out; ask 5 Japanese friends "what on this page makes you want to pay?" |
| T-1 | The platform sends a reminder email to all notifiers at 15:00 as a pre-announcement; LINE countdown in three waves |
| T0 launch day | 09:00 LINE broadcast → 09:05 all SNS accounts → 09:10 ad landing page switches to a direct link; PR TIMES distributed in parallel; three email waves (immediately / 6h / 24h) |
| T+0~T+3 | The life-or-death window — see ② |
| T+7 | Start UGC operations; look at the traffic-source data and cut budget — cut any channel under 10% share |
| T+10~30 (mid-game) | The inevitable stall period. Countermeasures in ③. Keep 活動レポート [activity reports] at 2–3 per week |
| T+30 | Mid-term iteration node: add new リターン, add new colors, possibly change the key visual; a second purchase-conversion rate ≥8% is healthy |
| Last 7 days | 追込広告 [closing ads] + a "残りわずか" [only a few left] sense of scarcity; see ④ |
| End of month | Closing date → lump-sum payment on the 25th of the next month (minus 20%) |
| T+30 ~ +90 (after the end) | Collect payment + produce and ship + maintain backers; see ⑤ |
Why 72 hours: ① algorithmic positive feedback (the ranking is ordered by the previous 24h amount); ② multi-source consensus KPI — "reach 20% in 5 days → final success rate about 90%"; ③ external-traffic conversion efficiency is highest on launch day — the support rate via LINE is about 2–3× other channels.
【MrBeast】's reading method: "The first 72 hours are not a cultivation period but a life-or-death window... after 72 hours the strategy flips completely: slow down — no longer chase new customers, but turn to repeat support and share-spreading from existing backers."
【Ortega】's hourly-report system:
Red light: day-one success rate <3% and SNS engagement rate <1% → trigger the retreat plan within 72h.
"The mid-game (days 10–14) will inevitably bring a stall period." It converges into three mutually exclusive choices — don't do them all at once:
Soft war (narrative and psychology): "ラスト 3 日で売上 30~40% 入るケース" [the case where 30–40% of sales come in the last 3 days] is a phenomenon the platform openly acknowledges. The play = a "残りわずか" sense of scarcity + a countdown series of activity reports (one update per day, themes running "thank-you for reaching N×," "the last tier of bonus rewards," "72/24h end countdown").
Hard war (committing resources): put the last 10% of the remaining ad budget all into these 7 days; release the UGC of the first 50 backers in a concentrated burst in the final week. 【Ortega】's calm note: "After T+50 days, final call — no more paid traffic in the last 10 days, let the curve wind down naturally." The two do not conflict: he means don't drag the spending into the end during the cold-start period, whereas 追込 is giving one last kick of fuel to a curve that is already hot.
Minimal punch-card: T-60 submit consultation → T-45 page writing begins + SNS account cultivation → T-30 fix the hook + start ads to build the list → T-14 pre-finalization check, ask 30 people one by one → T-7 teaser + 5-person test → T-1 platform reminder at 15:00 → T0 9:00 all gates open → T+72h read the numbers to decide life or death → T+10~30 pick one of three to save the mid-game → last 7 days soft-and-hard closing → payment on the 25th of the next month → +30~90 days shipping + post-mortem.
There are only two things you can't grasp: whether you can surge to 15–30% on day one, and how many people are in your LINE list before that day.
The Makuake project page is not a product manual; it is your one and only face-to-face chance with a stranger on a Tokyo street, scrolling their phone while sipping canned coffee. 【Steve Jobs】: "Makuake is the product's launch event No. 0 — you only have 30 seconds." 【Yanai】: "The page is the counter where the product first meets the customer; the product is the ad."
The time a user takes to swipe to your cell in the homepage grid is about 0.5–1.2 seconds. Three iron rules:
The acceptance tool is the Zoom Out Test: shrink the main image to the size of a list cell; if you can't tell what it's doing, redo it. Make at least 10 versions, and find 50 people for a blind test of "which one would you click" — "don't trust your own eyes." 【Kahneman】: your own confidence that "this image is good" when you look at it measures the coherence of a story, not market evidence — a 50-person blind test is the corrector for your overconfidence.
The behavioral chain is "first look at the main image to decide whether to enter, then look at cover 2 to decide whether to read." 99% of projects waste cover 2. The right approach is to create a semantic contradiction: put in an image that makes people pause for 0.5 seconds (selling towels → the towel cut open to reveal a cross-section of the absorbent structure). This is called a double-hook structure. Dwell time is not a vanity metric — Makuake's time-series prediction model feeds "dwell + early success rate" together as prediction features to the algorithm.
Counter-example: a company logo in the first 5 seconds; "by second 7, 95% of viewers have swiped away."
You must write the script yourself. 【Godin】: the video must have "a very specific person speaking very specifically." 【Yanai】: the page writes only three things — "① what this is ② the moment of everyday use ③ why you need it now" — "customers don't pay for a story, they pay for their own life tomorrow."
【Cialdini】: "pre-suasion" — within the 8 seconds from when the user opens the page to finishing the first screen, three buttons must light up at once: social proof + liking + consistency.
| Page position | Principle | Concrete practice |
|---|---|---|
| Directly under the title | Social proof | 「◯◯人が応援中 / ◯◯% 達成 / ランキング◯位」[N people supporting / N% reached / ranking No. N] |
| Early-bird SKU | Scarcity (double gate of quantity + time) | Early birds 10–20% of total, 20–30% below the regular tier, sold out within 3–7 days |
| Next to the early-bird tier | Authority (anchor) | Label「メーカー希望小売価格」[manufacturer's suggested retail price] — "a discount without an anchor is just cheap; with an anchor it's a gain" |
| Highest-tier gift | Reciprocity × authority | R&D notes + craftsman interview card + limited numbered plate, cost ¥500–800 |
| Full-cycle community | Consistency | Build a「◯◯を作る会」[let's-make-X club] from Day 1 |
| Warm-up-period content | Liking (front-loaded) | From D-7, serialize the story of the product's birth |
Data support: a group that saw "already used by X ten-thousand people" had 23% higher purchase intent; projects that put the backer count directly under the title had an average success rate about 1.8× higher.
One iron rule: every "◯◯人応援中" / "◯◯博士監修" / "限定100" written on the page must be true — "it can be small, it can be few, but it can't be fake." Forgery caught by the platform means delisting + a permanent ban.
A backer's judgment does not depend on your cost but on the two numbers you set — the 通常価格 [regular price, the retail anchor] and the early-bird price. The most counterintuitive point: setting a low price is not friendlier, it's more dangerous — a low price locks in the ceiling for raising the retail price after launch, eating up all subsequent profit. The right posture is to anchor "high but credible" (able to produce evidence benchmarking comparable products on the market). Hard constraint: the 表記審査 checks the 裏付け [backing] for emphasized expressions, and page content cannot be changed after review approval — the price anchor and all emphasized copy must be finalized before submission.
"Amazon delivery is logistics; Makuake delivery is a ceremony." Design the unboxing as a second launch event: 49.2% of Japanese female consumers say packaging design decides the purchase. Blueprint: slip a handwritten-feel thank-you card into the shipment; stick a "応援購入者限定" [Support-Purchaser-Only] sticker on the outer box (the person unboxing will photograph and post it to SNS — a free UGC engine); the order in which the product is opened should be choreographed; list paper, magnet strength, and cushioning-sponge feel as P0 in the BOM.
「ストーリーだけは、スペックには勝てない。」 (Only a story can beat specs.)
Let's put the ugly words first: the success rate for published projects is 56.2%, but after removing the platform's screening bias, the actual failure rate for first challengers is "over seventy percent"; and for those who tough it out on their own without an advisor, the success rate is under 10%. Statistics already assume you are the denominator. But a methodology that doesn't die does exist: seal off the downside, and install the retreat button in advance.
1. The platform itself gets sick. The うぶごえ [Ubugoe] incident: a similar platform under the banner of "0% fee" went officially unreachable in March 2026, with backers' support funds unpaid. Conclusion — "platform stability" is a prior product-selection criterion ahead of "fee level." Makuake's 20% fee is indeed expensive, but expensive and absconding are two different things.
2. Platform mechanisms change at any time. From June 2026, for AoN-type projects the credit-card charge timing changes to "authorization requested at application," with automatic cancellation if not reached — but refunds can take up to 3 months.
3. Compliance standards suddenly tighten. After FNN / Sankei / gendai concentrated in 2025 on cases of shell companies on the Business Management Visa being sent back, "a company with ¥5M in capital, no employees, and no real cash flow applying for crowdfunding of ¥2M or more" will be scrutinized by both the visa side and the platform side at the same time.
4. Black swans like exchange rates. Taleb lists "the yen falling 5%+ within a week" directly as a project-level red light. There is only one contingency — pause secondary procurement, wait for the exchange rate to stabilize for 30 days, then place the order.
【Munger】gave this layer a name: "The platform's incentives ≠ my incentives." The platform wants PR cases and GMV; you want profit and renewal materials — every "push a little more" the platform gives you may be spending your money on their KPI.
2.1 Losing money on product selection: 35% gross margin + 30% self-funded cash + marketing squeezed to 5% + a crowded track — each item "isn't wrong" viewed alone, but together they are chronic suicide. The seal: 【Buffett】's path — confirm the product is validated first, only then talk about platform leverage; write the bankruptcy line on the first page of the plan.
2.2 Marketing break: going live without a private domain, day-one success rate <3% and SNS engagement rate <1%. Marketing is not a patch applied after launch; it is engineering done 30 days before launch.
2.3 Production crash (happens latest, kills most): a classic case — 200 backers, first 100 units shipped, 8% complaint rate (Amazon's benchmark is about 1%). The most moneyed crash is "high success rate + shipping collapse": reaching 466% looks great, but the first mass-production batch is too large, shipping delays trigger a wave of refunds, the platform starts partial 立替 refunds, cash is locked up, and the "business track record" narrative for your visa renewal collapses outright. The seal (contract level): make the procurement contract a conditional contract of "プロジェクト成立時発注" [order placed when the project succeeds].
2.4 Post-shrink returns: "キャンセル 原则不可" [cancellation in principle not allowed], the only exception being a full refund by mutual agreement through the platform. If you don't reply to a backer for 3 business days, the platform steps in. Countermeasures: confirm addresses 2–3 weeks before shipping, mark the outer box "Makuake からのリターンです," and promptly change the status to「発送完了」.
The definition of a red light is — the marginal cost of stopping the loss is lowest right now, and doubles with every day you delay.
| # | Red light | Immediate action |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Day-one success rate < 3% and SNS engagement rate < 1% | Trigger the retreat plan within 72 hours |
| 2 | Progress in the first 72 hours < 15% | Judge the initial push a failure; do not top up ads |
| 3 | Backer count 7 days after launch < 30% of the same category's median | Rewrite the homepage or prepare to cancel, not add ads |
| 4 | Not a single "面白い/応援したい" [interesting / want to support] in the comments | Narrative death; change the story or pull the project |
| 5 | You yourself laughed at your own page copy | Redo user interviews; do not launch |
| 6 | Cash balance < 30% of the project budget or < 3 months of operating costs | Stop marketing to survive; the project yields to the company |
| 7 | The yen falls 5%+ within a week | Pause secondary procurement, wait 30 days for stability |
| 8 | Your partner can't name 3 client cases they failed | Change advisor or do it yourself |
| 9 | Your 行政書士 [administrative scrivener] / 税理士 [tax accountant] starts advising "shouldn't you pause for a bit" | Listen — this is the corpse they've seen |
One meta-rule, from 【Kahneman】: a red light is only effective if it's written down in advance. If you don't set the abort threshold beforehand, then in the critical zone your brain will use "we've already invested so much, we can't stop" (sunk cost) to translate the red light into "add one more round of fire." Pre-mortem, pre-write the thresholds, pre-authorize yourself to chicken out.
A reversal signal = "the product has a pulse, but the narrative hasn't connected"; the action is change the story, not cut the price.
【Suzuki】: 「道具の目的を忘れる者は、道具に飲まれる」[those who forget the purpose of a tool are swallowed by the tool] — people hijacked by the number that is the success rate will eventually throw away all the data that could save the project.
A. Retreat during the fundraising period (not reached): AoN-type not reached → full refund, 0 fee, loss limited to sunk production/ad costs. For a voluntary abort, contact the キュレーター directly and follow the procedure; don't "leave it to rot." Write an honest one-page notice of "why we're not doing it" — this is an asset for getting on a second time.
B. Retreat after reaching target but before shipping (the most dangerous): you've collected the money, キャンセル is in principle not allowed, and there is only one way if you really must: agreement with all backers + a full refund through the platform. Order: ① freeze new spending ② work out the net position of "collected − paid to factory − logistics already shipped" ③ within 24–72 hours issue an activity report (current situation → impact → countermeasures → inquiry window) ④ offer a compensation plan, then negotiate agreement.
C. Liquidation after shipping: handle the tail-end complaints in 5 categories (damaged / wrong shipment / unknown address / delay / description mismatch). Click through「発送完了」on the management screen and notify through both channels. Archive the whole project's transaction, shipping, and complaint records as the "business track record" draft for visa renewal.
The second-round loop (going on again 90 days after a failure): the success rate of リピーター [repeat challengers] is about 73%, roughly 2× that of first challengers — Makuake is designed for "people who will play a second round": the first time you buy data; the second time is the business. Key points: ① a 30–90 day cooling-off period ② move only after classifying the cause of death (pricing wrong → change the price architecture; traffic wrong → build a LINE private domain; product wrong → change the product, not the story shell) ③ retain the previous batch of backers ④ don't re-bet in the same place.
【Paul Graham】: "The biggest risk is not that the project fails, but that what you learn through Makuake is not the users, but the platform's algorithm."
Design "withdrawal" as a part of the project, not a fallback for failure. On day one, write the red-light list and post it on the wall, sign the factory's AoN contingency into the contract, and reserve "how to play the second round" in your calendar — only projects that can retreat alive are qualified to talk about the high-success-rate curve of a second crowdfunding round.
Eighteen "advisors" each wrote a chapter independently, without consulting each other. This section lays out an 18-person × six-theme master table, verifies five points of consensus, lays out three real contradictions, and gives one most-conservative executable path.
How to use this table: don't adopt the eighteen opinions by averaging them. First look at your own situation (do you have a supply chain, Japanese ability, how thick is your cash cushion), then find the rows in the table that "share your situation" and let only those few vote. The rest are a jury, not a board.
| Persona | Product-selection direction | First-launch amount / budget basis |
|---|---|---|
| 【Munger】 | Act only in the upper-right quadrant of "already has SKU/supply chain + already has customer-acquisition ability" | AoN, target = actual demand × 1.35; Day1 ad spend ≥ 8% of target |
| 【Thiel】 | Japan-unique pain point × globally scarce niche-monopoly track, avoid the AI gadget red ocean; AOV ≥ ¥15,000 | Target 1,000 backers, success rate on the order of 300% |
| 【Buffett】 | "Mid-price + experience narrative" goods already validated on Amazon JP; only an AOV of ¥10,000+ can bear the 22% cut | Calculate the "daily wage" first: below ¥15,000/day, don't launch |
| 【Taleb】 | Gross margin ≥50% is the entry fee; below the line, don't get on; of every ¥1M raised, real spendable money < ¥550K | Total investment per project ≤ 10% of company cash flow |
| 【Dalio】 | The selected product must let you draw the four columns of the causal diagram; if you can't draw it, change the product | Target = (production sunk + 90-day operating vacuum) ÷ 0.75 |
| 【Ortega】 | First batch ≤3 SKUs, first-batch capacity = target backers × 1.2 (300–500 units, never over-order) | Unit price = factory cost × 3.3 ÷ 0.76, gross margin ≥30% |
| 【Yanai】 | "Life-part" type goods; AI × life parts is the window period | First launch ¥3M–10M, don't chase ¥100M |
| 【Suzuki】 | Write the hypothesis card first: "who, what trouble, how solved" | Target = reverse-calculated from the break-even of the minimum ロット [lot]; リターン in 3 tiers |
| 【Steve Jobs】 | A product explainable in one sentence of 15 kana | Pour the budget into the 30-second video and the packaging BOM |
| 【Sean Ellis】 | Pass the Sean Ellis test: "very disappointed without it" ≥40% before starting the project | Day-one sales ≥ 15% of target |
| 【Godin】 | Purple-cow principle: "a lighter power bank"-type improvement product is immediate death | Spend ¥1M on 100 real-name fans first, then ¥1M on ads |
| 【Cialdini】 | Pick a "three-principle positioning" (lead on only one of social proof / scarcity / authority) | Three-tier price ladder: super-early-bird 25–30% lower, quantity 8–12% |
| 【Kahneman】 | Anti-availability: first dig up 5–10 failed, unreached projects of the same category to study | All pricing deducts about 25% platform cut before computing break-even |
| 【MrBeast】 | A product whose one-line hook can excite a stranger | SNS budget split: IG 40% / TikTok 30% / X 20% / Shorts 10% |
| 【Paul Graham】 | Are you yourself one of those 100 who would pay? If not, become one first | ¥300K minimum / ¥1M standard / ¥3M = can bear 2–3 iterations |
| 【Zhang Yiming】 | The first phase isn't a money-maker but a data-collector | Target ¥2M–5M, aim for 100% success, not multiples |
| 【Huang Zheng】 | The ¥3,000–8,000 "gray band": Chinese supply-chain efficiency × Japanese sense of detail, home sundries | Target ¥2M–5M; unit cost ≤ 25% of retail price |
| 【Wang Tao】 | Extreme single product: if you can't say in one sentence "why it must be me who does this," cut it | Trial 50–100 units → Pilot 30–50 people → Launch |
| Persona | Success-rate adjustment value (decision line) | Signature line |
|---|---|---|
| 【Munger】 | If the 72h-after-launch support rate is <15%, concede immediately and switch to All-in to lower the target or pull the project | "It's a place to set off fireworks for people who already know how to make money" |
| 【Thiel】 | Interim conversion rate <3% = wrong product | "A monopoly exists only in the track that 99% of people think isn't worth doing" |
| 【Buffett】 | 72h-after-launch success <15% = alarm line | "Price is what you pay; value is what you get" |
| 【Taleb】 | If the success rate is <50% 3 days before the end, immediately apply to extend or cancel | "You don't need to predict the future; you just need to not die no matter how it happens" |
| 【Dalio】 | If 3–5 disinterested external reviews average <7, don't list | "Don't predict, prepare" |
| 【Ortega】 | 72h <15% triggers the retreat plan; day one <3% and SNS engagement <1% means retreat directly | "The customer decides. We just respond." |
| 【Yanai】 | If the last 48h is 50%+ short → do a post-mortem of the description, don't extend or add money | "Makuake isn't a financing venue, it's a product consultation room" |
| 【Suzuki】 | If the backer count on day 7 < 30% of the same category's median, stop | 「競合は同業他社ではない。生活者の昨日と今日の変化だ」[the competitor isn't a peer company; it's the change in the consumer's yesterday and today] |
| 【Steve Jobs】 | Only in the winning zone if the video completion rate in the first 7 days is >60% | "Only a story can beat specs" |
| 【Sean Ellis】 | If the day-1/7/14 sales ratio within 14 days is <5:3:2, immediately fire off 4 mid-game gimmicks | "Growing without PMF is dying faster" |
| 【Godin】 | Day one: 100 real-name backers + 50 UGC posts, amount ≥30% | "Fitting in is failing" |
| 【Cialdini】 | If the early-bird tier sells out within 72h, stop selling to create scarcity | "People don't ask what the evidence is, they ask who else believes it" |
| 【Kahneman】 | Don't set a success line, set a "stop threshold" — trigger means stop | "Confidence measures story coherence, not market evidence" |
| 【MrBeast】 | 48h ≥30% hot track / 10–30% neutral / <10% diagnose first, don't add money | "The first 72 hours are not a cultivation period, they're a life-or-death window" |
| 【Paul Graham】 | No numeric line; watch whether "strangers actually pay" | "If you yourself aren't one of those 100 users who would pay — stop, and go become one first" |
| 【Zhang Yiming】 | If by M6 the success rate is <50%, launch a final 2-week sprint | "First define which 12 numbers to collect, then decide what to sell" |
| 【Huang Zheng】 | If it can't surge to 30% of target in 48h, declare failure and stop the loss | "Letting Japanese people buy ¥10,000-worth of texture for ¥5,000 is your kitchen paper" |
| 【Wang Tao】 | Trial yield variance >5% or Pilot repurchase <20% → send back to the drawing board, don't Launch | "Product difficulty 1, management difficulty 10, compliance difficulty 100" |
The basis conflict in the "success-rate adjustment value" column is the densest spot in the whole book — 0%, 10%, 15%, 30%, 50% all get mentioned. Note that they are actually measuring different clocks: MrBeast / Huang Zheng / Buffett look at 48–72 hours (traffic life-or-death), Taleb looks at the last 3 days (the final stop-loss window), Suzuki looks at day 7 (hypothesis validation), Zhang Yiming looks at the month (data collection). Different clocks, so the thresholds don't contradict each other.
Consensus one · Makuake isn't for selling goods, it's for "validation + endorsement + premiere." 【Buffett】"a high-ROI product launch"; 【Yanai】"not a financing venue, but a product consultation room"; 【Godin】"Not a product launch, but a tribe launch." Corollary: Makuake is the left pan of the scale; the right pan must be laid out by yourself — people with no right pan should not get on.
Consensus two · The first 72 hours are decisive. 【MrBeast】cites the official Tech note: the platform treats the "72-hour-from-start success rate" as the core signal for recommendation-slot ranking; 【Buffett】"the golden curve = 30% in the first 3 days, 30% in the middle, 40% in the last 3 days." 15% is the lower bound of "still alive," 30% is the lower bound of "will win"; the rescue is changing the story / main image, not cutting the price.
Consensus three · Small batch first, test capacity first-hand. 【Ortega】"first-batch capacity = target backers × 1.2"; 【Taleb】"bet tier ≤ 10% of company cash flow"; 【Buffett】"first batch 300–500 units." No one tells you to bet big.
Consensus four · The double gate of a Japanese native speaker + a Japanese layman. 【Suzuki】"1名は客、1名は業界素人" [one should be a customer, one should be an industry layman]; 【Steve Jobs】"language is only a wall, the standpoint is the wall... Japanese people won't tell you the packaging feels bad, they'll leave in silence"; 【Paul Graham】"a machine-translated page, Japanese people spot at a glance"; 【Huang Zheng】"all-Japanese packaging and manual + customer service in the Japan time zone."
Consensus five · The first time is only tuition. 【Buffett】"core materials must be seamlessly transferable to Amazon JP/Rakuten for a second monetization"; 【Zhang Yiming】"if you can't get it once, there are a second and third time"; 【Paul Graham】"the first round's data is free teaching material." Treating the first launch as a single all-or-nothing = death; treating the first launch as tuition to graduate = winning.
Contradiction one · Product selection: extreme high-AOV vs gray-band low unit price vs hauling a proven hit. The ruling axis: "why must this product be made by me?" — answer "unique tech/craft" → the Wang Tao–Thiel line; answer "Chinese supply-chain cost efficiency" → the Huang Zheng line; answer "it has already sold on Amazon JP" → the Buffett line. If you can't answer all three → listen to PG: go become one of those 100 who would pay first.
Contradiction two · Amount and mode: gross-margin red line vs formula-set target vs three-in-a-row vs small-batch quick-response. This group is actually not a contradiction, but four filters stacked: 【Taleb】governs "should you enter" (gross-margin red line + bet-tier cap = a single veto) → 【Dalio】governs "how much to write as the target" → 【Ortega】governs "how much stock to prepare for the first batch" → 【Zhang Yiming】governs "how many shots to fire in a year." Filter in this order, and the four people's answers for the same project automatically converge to: a ¥2M–5M target, a 300–500-unit first batch, AoN or a small All-in.
Contradiction three · Test on Amazon JP before Makuake, or go straight to Makuake? The ruling axis: look at two things — ① do you have 90 days of time and inventory capital to front; ② is the product an "extreme new product" (an extreme new product has no benchmarkable shelf on Amazon, and the premiere ceremony can only be gotten at Makuake). Have fronting capital + ordinary product → Amazon first; no capital patience but the product is extreme enough → go straight to Makuake; neither → go back to the PG exit of contradiction one.
Trade one "affordable tuition" for a "true answer sheet from the Japanese market": a small, sharp single product with gross margin ≥50%, first pass the compliance BOM and a Japanese-native double review, list it All or Nothing at a ¥2M–5M target, make only a 300–500-unit first batch, invest no more than 10% of company cash flow, build up 100 real-name backers before launch, judge life or death at 48–72 hours after launch with the two lines of 15% / 30%, and if the line isn't reached immediately change the story rather than cut the price, and if it still fails, retreat with dignity — regardless of success or failure, within 30–60 days funnel the backers to your own EC/LINE, move the materials over to Amazon JP, and then take the data into a second shot.
One-sentence compressed version: "Buy it as a ¥2M–5M paid experiment, don't gamble on it as a get-rich opportunity." Not one of the eighteen people objects to this sentence — it is the only line in the whole table with no disagreement.
One final reminder of the disclaimer all advisors share: the above are all persona inferences based on public statements and do not constitute the opinions of real people; for the specific execution of PSE/PSC/薬機法, visas, and taxes, please leave it to a Japanese 行政書士 and 税理士.