Mexico's CFE and Iberdrola: A Natural Gas Empire from Privatization Rollback to the Energy Sovereignty Game

Origin

In 2013, then-President Enrique Peña Nieto advanced an energy reform that opened the power generation sector to private capital. Foreign enterprises like Iberdrola entered aggressively, centering on natural gas combined-cycle power plants and rapidly capturing market share. After taking office in 2018 under the banner of 'national energy sovereignty,' Andrés Manuel López Obrador criticized electricity privatization for driving up electricity prices and weakening state control, resolving to return CFE to a dominant role in power generation. This move stemmed from a reflection on the long-term reliance of Mexico's oil and electricity sectors on foreign capital, especially against the backdrop of booming natural gas power generation, with the government aiming to reshape the energy landscape through nationalization.

Milestones

Turning Points

• The 2013 Mexican energy reform legislation opened the door to privatization, upon which Iberdrola rode the wind to grow.
• The election of Andrés Manuel López Obrador in 2018 tightened private generation space through executive orders and regulatory measures, signaling a policy pivot.
• The Mexican government's 2023 forced acquisition of Iberdrola's 13 power plants for 6 billion dollars completed the 'new nationalization.'
• CFE's 2025 spin-off and sale of 2.6 gigawatts of assets to Cox, opening up partial grid investment to foreign capital, reflected a rebalancing between sovereignty and foreign capital.

Failures & Pitfalls

• Iberdrola's wind and photovoltaic projects in Mexico faced intensive permit rejections between 2019 and 2021, forcing over 2 billion dollars in investments to be shelved and resulting in heavy losses.
• During the 2022 heatwave blackout crisis, CFE's severe grid aging was exposed, showing that the nationalization process failed to resolve power supply reliability beforehand.
• The Mexican Supreme Court ruled in 2022 that López Obrador's priority dispatch order was unconstitutional, marking a major judicial setback for the government's energy policy.

Core Data

• 收购金额：5.9 billion dollars (public data basis, independent verification unverified)
• 收购装机容量：8.5 gigawatts (public data basis, independent verification unverified)
• 发电市场份额：100% (public data basis, independent verification unverified)
• 转售资产规模：2.6 RMB (public data basis, independent verification unverified)
• 转售交易金额：40% (public data basis, independent verification unverified)
• 墨西哥天然气发电占比：60% (public data basis, independent verification unverified)
• 天然气进口依赖度：70% (public data basis, independent verification unverified)

Competitors / Peers

The core comparison of this game is the role transition between CFE (state-owned) and Iberdrola (foreign-funded) in Mexico's electricity market, along with Cox Energy as the emerging successor. Globally, similar cases include PPP project cooperation between the Federal Commission of Electricity (CFE) and State Grid Corporation of China, as well as asset buybacks and renegotiations during energy sovereignty waves involving Argentina's YPF and Shell, and Brazil's Petrobras and Norway's Equinor. After exiting Mexico, Iberdrola shifted its focus to US, Australian, and European grid markets, maintaining a global installed capacity exceeding 60 gigawatts as a steadfast international power giant; meanwhile, CFE further consolidated its position as Latin America's second-largest electric utility through acquisitions (second only to Brazil's Eletrobras).